ANTIESTABLISHMENTARIAN

Finance, Fuel Prices, Economics, Markets

Freedom In America

Here’s where we stand. In Bloomberg vs. The Federal Reserve, in which Bloomberg sued for the right of disclosure of whom the Fed was lending money to, the Fed has argued that:

Revealing the names of the Banks to whom it loaned money would cause irreparable harm to those banks and the nation.

Let’s see if we understand this correctly. The Fed is arguing that revelation of its loans would reveal that said banks were essentially insolvent and bankrupt; that it was essential that depositors and those doing business with aforesaid banks, not know the condition of the banks they are doing business with. This is the same policy of secrecy and underhandedness which they hold out for their own selves.

The Fed is the Don Corleone of the banking mafia. Time to put a horse’s head under its sheets.

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August 28, 2009 Posted by | Blowing Steam | Leave a comment

At Least Somebody Has It Right

The notion of energy independence is about as ridiculous as waiting for it to rain $100 bills.

From NYT:

The question of American “energy independence” clearly rankles officials in Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest exporter of crude oil, who seem increasingly puzzled by the energy policy of the United States, the world’s biggest oil consumer.

In a short and strongly-worded essay in Foreign Policy magazine, Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former ambassador to the United States and a nephew to King Abdullah, said that for American politicians, invoking energy independence “is now as essential as baby-kissing,” and accuses them of “demagoguery.”

All the talk about energy independence, Mr. al-Faisal said, is “political posturing at its worst — a concept that is unrealistic, misguided, and ultimately harmful to energy-producing and consuming countries alike.”

There is no technology on the horizon that can completely replace oil as the fuel for the United States’ massive manufacturing, transportation, and military needs; any future, no matter how wishful, will include a mix of renewable and nonrenewable fuels.

Considering this, efforts spent proselytizing about energy independence should instead focus on acknowledging energy interdependence. Like it or not, the fates of the United States and Saudi Arabia are connected and will remain so for decades to come.

Sometimes even an oil sheik tells the truth. And if Americans don’t wake up and realize this fact pretty soon, they are all going to be running on empty far too soon.  Just a few years ago Mexico supplied 20% of our oil. Now look. See how fast a massive oil field can be depleted? A couple more years and it will be nada, zip, gone.US Imports

cantarell

August 27, 2009 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The Economy Is Recovering

Shiela Bair, the head of the FDIC declares today that the economy is recovering. And the proof is right here.

bank failures

The above graph charts the ever-growing FDIC list of probable bank failures. That is what they call a parabolic curve. The FDIC fund is now bust; it now has to turn to all us fabulously rich taxpayers to bail out these gangsters and racketeers. The FDIC is not the solution, it IS the problem. Having all their deposits guaranteed by the taxpayer, most of the risk to  the banksters is pawned off on us so they can engage in wild speculations that proceed to destroy our economy, buy off all the political rats and drive us all down the road to ruin.

Any bets on the number of failed banks for 2010? Private estimates are in the range of 700-800, or 10% of all banks. No problemo, senior, we jes preent mucho mas pesos. Seguridad en toto.

August 27, 2009 Posted by | Economics | Leave a comment

Oil Update

Is  oil bought from Canada the equivalent of “foreign oil”? Canada may be a foreign nation, but we share a common culture with very few differences. One way or the other, it sure is a lot less worrisome than oil from Venezuela and the Middle East.

HOUSTON (Reuters) – Growing volumes of crude oil from Canada and the Gulf of Mexico should assure U.S. Gulf Coast refiners adequate supplies for years to come despite fast-declining imports from Mexico and Venezuela.

Imports from the two major Latin American suppliers have dwindled by 24 percent in the past four years, but the huge refining region they serve is unlikely to run short due to billions of dollars planned for new pipelines from Canada and exploration in the deepwater Gulf, analysts said.

Canadian oil sands production alone could make up for both losses, said analyst Martin King of Calgary-based FirstEnergy Capital Corp. “You’re essentially switching to Canadian crude from Mexican and Venezuelan,” King said.

In its June forecast, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said it expects output from northern Alberta’s vast oil sands to nearly double to 2.2 million barrels a day by 2015. Weak oil prices and the credit crunch led numerous companies to delay development projects, forcing CAPP to cut expectations from its previous forecast.

Still, pipeliners have zeroed in on the Gulf Coast — site of 40 percent of U.S. refining capacity — as the next big market for Canadian oil. There, Mexican and Venezuelan imports have fallen by 700,000 bpd since 2004, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

TransCanada Corp’s (TRP.TO) proposed $7 billion Keystone XL pipeline expansion would ship as much as 500,000 bpd to Gulf Coast refineries by 2012.

Enbridge Inc (ENB.TO) and BP Plc (BP.L) are working to develop a 250,000 bpd system to the Gulf Coast by that same year at a cost of up to $2 billion.

Frankly, I think that bit about “assurance for years to come” is more than a bit optimistic. How many years we must ask, two, three or ten? But it may put to rest the notion that Canada can’t produce unconventional oil for less than $100/bl, which was the common notion of late. And notice that there is no substantiation about increased production from the Gulf. I know not any. Last I heard, Gulf oil production was falling as it has been for years.

Wither Oil Prices?

While I’ve been keeping up to date on the oil industry, I’ve not posted much for the reason that everything remains in flux and a high state of volatility. Thanks to an economy that is being propped up by borrowed money, there is no way to make reasonable predictions.

The supply side is problematic and loaded with worrisome events and possibilities, none of them good. Regardless of how much oil remains in the ground, the amounts being extracted are shrinking along with exploration and development to replace what is being pulled out. Yet there is one thing I can predict with certainty:

Improvement in economic activity will serve to drive prices up very substantially. Substitute “stock markets” for “economic activity.”

Continued deterioration in economic activity (stock markets) will serve to hold prices down.

With government showering money on bankers, who are the top speculators in oil, the more they shower, the more they drive the price up. The CFTC says it wants to “protect the consumer” from the speculators, and it will do so by preventing the consumer from investing in oil ETFs such as USO which it (the CFTC) labels as ” a big speculator,” not Goldman Sucks or JP Morgan and the other members of the financial mafia known as banks, cum hedge funds and casinos.

My hunch is that oil will continue trending up as long as the stock markets do.

August 25, 2009 Posted by | Oil Updates | 2 Comments

Dow 4,000 or 40,000?

This was an interesting question posed by Dr. Mark Farber in an interview last weekend. His answer was that there is a good probability of both.

There are a lot of great contrarian minds working to try to foresee the future as a result of the events of the last two years. By now they’ve worked through all possibilities and one of them will come to pass. The concensus is growing that the outcome may be indicated in one word: Argentina. All the establishment economists claim that could never happen because we are the United States, not a third world banana republic. They see through clouded eyes; the similarities between the US and Argentina in 1990 are remarkable similar and growing by the day.

As most of you know, Argentina suffered a monetary collapse and hyperinflation that was so bad that even the IMF couldn’t bail them out. Most people think that inflation came first, collapse second, but that is not the case. Argentina first experienced a bond market collapse due to excessive foreign debt. This debt was accumulated due to social policies that wrecked its economy, namely fascism disguised as socialism. Sound familiar? The entire nation was spending more than it was producing, by a lot. It had moderate inflation but by no means extreme money printing or excessive credit. Productivity just kept falling and falling and government kept borrowing ever more until the day came that no one would buy its bonds. Virtually overnight its bond market collapsed and its currency became worthless. Sound familiar? Think Iceland.

Argentina’s problem never was too much money and credit creation but falling productivity and supply. As its currency depreciated, the cost of its import dependency grew into the vicious cycle that guaranteed its ultimate collapse. Sound familiar? This is how you get hyperinflation out of depression. It’s main components are not money supply but foreign debt, imports, and collapsing productivity and finally currency collapse. Virtually all those factors are present in the US in spades, and but for the fact that the dollar is the world currency, we would have collapsed long ago.

Dr. Farber points out that there is no conceivable way that the US is going to cut back on its debt binge; if it does, its economy collapses. Unless some unexpected event intervenes, it is almost guaranteed that the NY-DC rats will ride this horse right over the cliff. And the main reason is that real productivity does not figure into establishment calculations. In the name of political expedience, they have buggered the productivity indexes as badly as they have all the others so that it presents them with a totally false picture. These are people who think that whatever it is that Wall Street does constitutes productivity, when, in fact, Wall Street finance is parasitical. It does not add to the economy but detracts. They think that finance constitutes 20% of GDP, when it is actually a net drag on GDP. Therefore GDP is overstated by 40% from this alone.

But wait! It gets worse. Government taxation and spending is also called productivity. I know that’s hard to believe but its true. Government spending also counts for another 15-20% of GDP, so when we back all this out, what’s left of real GDP? Argentina, that’s what.

We do not have significant monetary inflation and yet prices of necessities are rising significantly. The reason is simply falling supply. As the real economy contracts, businesses fail or cut back production and supply declines. And yet the money supply remains relatively stable so we have the same amount of money chasing fewer goods. This is not what you hear the mainstream economists talking about, is it? Plus, we now have a two-tiered economy: Wall Street and everyone else. And while government pumps trillions into Wall Street, money and credit are being withdrawn from everyone else. The Wall Street money then proceeds to bid up the price of most assets including stocks and commodities. Meanwhile both food and energy are subject to rising demand from that part of the world we used to think didn’t matter. The economy contracts while stock markets look great.

What is left of our maladjusted economy is only being kept afloat by USG borrowing and spending, mainly at the top while real productivity (making real stuff) continues to shrink. One of these days the US bond market will simply roll over and die. And when it dies, the dollar goes with it. There will be no warning, it will just happen as quickly as the Soviet Union vanished over night. And the very next day you will know and understand the meaning of hyperinflation: instantaneous readjustment of the price of all imports, followed shortly thereafter by all domestic goods and services. Gasoline at $20-30 gallon, a shirt made in Malaysia, $200, a pair of socks, $50. A cell phone battery, $600. And so on.

Instant, overnight poverty, and there will be no warning whatsoever.

I will conclude this piece as I began it. How do we get the Dow first at 4,000, then 40,000? Pumping the “economy” up with borrowed money will ultimately appear to confirm their propaganda of a recovery and at some point they shut off the pump. The markets will rather quickly go into free fall and by the time they hit 4,000 they will turn the pumps back on, while adding a few more pumps. The dollar will slide badly, like down to about 50, at which point the markets rocket upwards and lead to the bond market collapse and the rest is history.

There will be only one way to provide a small amount of protection from this event. Gold and silver won’t do it because, in all probability these metals will be outlawed and/or confiscated. It will be useable in whatever black markets develop, but you will be unable to use it pay your major bills like utilities, mortgages, etc or even in chain stores, assuming there are any left. You’d have to sell gold for dollars on the black market ( and likely get a very bad price for precious gold) and by the time you deposited that cash in the bank and wrote a check on it, its value would already have fallen by half.

That way would be to aggressively buy into stocks when they reach their bottom at 4,000 or whatever and wait for the rocket ride upwards. At some point before the final collapse you have to make a decision to cash out of stocks, likely with a 10X or better profit. In this way you avoid the loss to the scalpers in the precious metals black market and are sitting on a large pile of inflated cash. Then, when the collapse comes, you rush out and spend it all on the stuff you need like food and other necessities. Then you can use your gold and silver for purchases of goods in the black markets for goods that eventually will develop. In this way you stretch the purchasing power of both cash dollars and precious metals to the max.

And then the only way to give yourself any longer term protection for more than a few months would be to enter the black market for goods yourself where you have a chance of getting paid in real money. The truth is that the only real protection will be street smarts. If you can live by your wits, you’ll make out. If not, there are likely bread lines and soup kitchens in your future.

August 24, 2009 Posted by | Economics | Leave a comment

Supply-Side Hell – Again

Does anyone remember supply side economics? Art Laffer was Ronald Reagan’s economics advisor who advocated a new idea he called supply side economics. Reagan was elected in 1980 after the disastrous 1970’s and Jimmy Carter. Inflation was running 16% and the economy was in the dumps. We had an oil embargo and fuel and materials prices doubled. But it was not so much money creation that caused the inflation as it was prolonged recession and other factors that reduced the production of goods. “More money chasing fewer goods,” was the refrain.

target-shelf

In addition to Volker throwing on the brakes of lending, Laffer’s idea was to make it more profitable for producers to produce more stuff. Enter tax cuts and other industry friendly legislation. The rest is history, but supply side economics was labeled by Reagan’s buffoon successor as “voodoo” economics. The truth was that once the economy got going again, there was no longer any need for supply side economics; it had done its job.

You can see from this that one way to produce high inflation apart from increasing the money supply is to reduce the supply of goods drastically. Unfortunately, recessions and depressions have a nasty habit of doing just that. To have inflation, it is not necessary to increase money supply, just reduce goods and prices will rise dramatically.

I believe that this is what we will soon be facing. All producers are being badly squeezed. They are already reducing the size of packaging and cutting quality to try to survive. When they’ve exhausted these means, and many of them gone bankrupt, supplies of all good will shrink dramatically. Look around in the big chain stores, you can see it happening already. Shelf space is shrinking, they’re not carrying as many goods. Forget money supply, money is disappearing faster than it can be replaced. Its the ever-shrinking supply of goods that is going to bite us in the ass with shark’s teeth. Prices will begin to rise regardless of money supply.

We’re already got 18% of the workforce unemployed and without an income and not spending. There is no way you can have monetary inflation under those circumstances. And they say GDP is only down 5%. Baloney. We are in a deflationary depression which will soon turn into an inflationary one. But it will be prices that inflate, not money supply, since the supply of goods is shrinking fast.

The hardest hit areas of supply will be food, energy, metals and commodities in general, along with some manufactured goods that involve materials shortages. Meanwhile, asset values will continue to deflate.

August 22, 2009 Posted by | Economics | , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Cutting Through the Fog

So what’s up with the stock markets? One wag described them as herds of wildebeests being chased by hunters in helicopters. Another: A gang of terrorists with assault rifles gone wild in a casino.

Meanwhile, here’s the action in government debt this week:

$27 BILLION IN 52-WEEK BILLS

$42 BILLION IN TWO-YEAR NOTES
$31 BILLION IN THREE-MONTH BILLS
$28 BILLION IN SEVEN-YEAR NOTES
$30 BILLION IN SIX-MONTH BILLS
$39 BILLION IN FIVE-YEAR NOTES

That totals $207 billion, only two weeks after a $250 billion dollar week. Gee, only $1/2 trillion in 3 weeks. Guess who gets to pay principle and interest. YOU do. What? You say, “Not me!” Oh, yes, everyone, no escape. The dollar has lost 12% of its value since March. You don’t notice it but that’s the hidden tax that pays the above debt. It cannot be paid off, so they will try to inflate it away, and a tax by any other name is still a tax. Your taxes just went up 12% in the last 6 months and you didn’t even know it. Get ready for more. I hope you don’t mind Uncle taking half of all you earn to feed the beast.

The defaults and delinquency rates for all types of credit just keeps on rising, and its gonna get worse as CRE and the next batch of ARMs hit early next year. So the banks are now healthy? Sure, and water isn’t wet. Odd, the FDIC has a mere 150 slated to fail in the next 12 months. What do you want to bet that it will be more?

House prices keep on falling as the truth keeps on seeping out from under the blankets of propaganda put out by industry and media. Hows about DOWN 15% in second quarter suit ya? That enough to get your green shoots tingling?

Unemployment keeps on trucking upward, even as Uncle Sam squirms every which way to revise the numbers downward. The real number is not 9.6% but 18.2% when we add in all the people they choose not to count for all sorts of bizarre reasons. This is depressionary territory folks.

Retail sales? Another Ministry of Truth story. Amazingly one can get some realistic numbers from the St. Louis fed: How’s a 13.5% downward change from 2008 fit the way you see things? There are no numbers on small retail, but were I live I can count the store closings and the number I get is 24%. AlixPartners LLP a Michigan consulting firm estimates that 25.8% of 182 large retailers will close their door in 2009-10. Sound about right based on what you see?

How about large retailers like Target where shelf space has been reduced by 40%. Does that confirm the claims of retail sales down only 5%? Yeah, people are flocking to Walmart, but they’ve abandoned all the others.

And then there’s office space. Oh, the hotshots do tabulate the skyscraper space, but not the small stuff where 90% of all offices are. Where I live, commercial realestate is a disaster with vacancy rates at least 50%. We got numerous buildings that are empty: no lights on, no cars in the lot, so the rate could be even higher. There isn’t a single building that doesn’t have a “for lease” sign on it. Not one. The population here is now falling as new arrivals who lost jobs can’t find work and are forced to pack up and leave.

Now, back to the subject of US borrowing. The geniuses that run our nation are sucking money out of the economy at the rate of $3 trillion annually, which is 21% of the phony GDP which includes government spending. When we back the gummint spending out of that number, it is really around 30% of GDP. Ask yourself, how can the economy ever recover, much less grow, when Uncle Sam is sucking 1/3 of its capital? Answer: no way possible. When people complain that government is the problem, not the solution, they ain’t kidding. Soon enough the time will come when either Uncle can no longer service his gargantuan debt, or there is nothing left to borrow. Then what?

UP NEXT: I will discuss how deflation will turn into inflation as the economy sinks further. Seems contradictory but its not.

August 20, 2009 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

My Mistake

Unlike the MSM, I will correct mistakes when I make them. It doesn’t hurt, its painless. You see, I misread the Fed’s statement yesterday. They are not committing to another $1.5 trillion in monitization of mortgage bonds but have reaffirmed their prior commitment do so. I read the excerpt of the statement published elsewhere instead of the real thing. That’s what happens when you don’t read the whole thing.

Checking the Fed data, so far they have purchased exactly $650 billion in MBS and $175 in treasuries. That leaves $675 in toto left to go and all this will go into the black hole of the mortgage market where deflation is so rampant that it will have no affect on general prices. Keep in mind that house prices fell an incredible 15% in second quarter. Apparently the other side of the world misread that statement too, resulting in commodities rocketing, but they have since fallen back, though the dollar continues to fall. This most likely is due to the shakiness in the stock markets.

Regardless, the economic data is still terrible. They keep trying to hide it, gloss it over, but they can’t since there are so many indices that refuse to confirm the boiled books, such as trade and shipping data which are not doctored. The big boomergangs in store for us this fall and winter will be the dismal corporate performance in 3Q and 4Q. Companies used the massive layoffs to pay for continued dividend payouts even while gross revenues were falling. Now the money gained from the layoffs is gone and there is no profit increase, quite the opposite.

A huge black swan may be in the offing next spring with the collapse of Fanny, Freddy and now Ginny, all of whom pose multi trillion dollar liabilities for the taxpayer. And, as Deninger and Middleton point out today, the hidden insolvencies of banks are beginning to re-emerge. There is a reason the Fed is propping up these monstrosities with $1.5 trillion, but is it enough to deal with over $7 trillion in garbage bonds should the market suddenly turn on them? Hardly. There’s not enough money anywhere to plug that black hole.

Additionally, the Fed has lost control of interest rates. MBS rates do not control mortgage rates no matter how much of that crap the Fed buys. It is the 7 & 10 year bond that controls those rates that are once again rising. Interest rates have to rise what with the USG sucking $2.5 trillion out of the economy annually. Plus, mortgage defaults are again on the rise and there is more than enough energy there to smash housing down even further. They tried to tell us that unemployment was “bottoming,” but today’s numbers put the kebosh on that. New jobless claims, once we cut through the bull are in the 600k range again, and that only counts those eligible for unempl insurance, no one else so the real numbers are vastly higher.

Another nail in the coffin for stocks is the Fed closing down some of its “liquidity” programs, namely loans to speculators, also known as banks, but a few hedge funds, too. So called confidence levels are extremely fragile now, so once the reality that the economy is resuming its fall takes hold, that giant sucking sound will be money exiting the stock markets leaving the banksters holding their leveraged money bags sans money. Since they control the majority of it, to whom can they sell when they want to bail? Answer: no one. Welcome to the wonderful world of programme trading – 1987 redux.

And in the news today for a repeat performance is the fact that 90% of the toxic assets that killed the banksters in the first place are still on their books. The brilliant geniuses from Goldman Saks still haven’t figured out how to turn a sow’s ear into a pile of gold, although they did manage to kite their stock prices just fine. As we all know, what the stock market giveth, it can also taketh away – often in a heartbeat. Ergo a big flush of big bad new news remains quite capable of toppling them over the edge once again. In other words, “Baby, there ain’t be nothin’ yet fixed. It be down dere hiden’ unner de rug.”While I really don’t want to get into bank situation, suffice to say that it still remains as the fulcrum on which the economy could tilt into Dante’s Inferno. It wouldn’t take any really big shocks to bring them back down, like a cancer patient killed by a cold.

All of which brings me to the inflation front again. Consumer credit continues to fall; savings continues to rise as does joblessness. None of this is hardly a formula for inflation. And yet many consumer prices are rising. In large part this is the result of falling supplies and capital investment, particularly in food and the metals. This has nothing to do with the government’s ridiculous productivity index that never seems to decline. How can it when you count government spending as productivity?

As for the dollar, if the markets reverse this will support the dollar since leveraging is back again on the rise with a vengeance. Yet rising interest rates and yields on bonds bodes poorly for equities. Will there be another “rush to safety”? Most likely since there are darn few who believe that the US Treasury is not bullet-proof. Yes this means another probable market crash with similar results to last fall; a treasury market that continues to defy gravity and goes right on levitating . . . until it doesn’t.

Commodities have been hinging on the stock markets lately, and when those markets falter so will commodities. The economy is continuing to decline; there never has been any uptick whatsoever. The so-called W shaped recession is really more of a wavy line down. There may have been a slight plateau, but that is the best can be said of an economy that will continue to decline with renewed vigor. The inflation/deflation debate will reignite once again and I shall be pleased to sit it out and let others eat their shoes.

At this point it would seem that any upward pressure on oil will come from the dollar; it will remain linked to stocks and same for most other commodities. US consumption spiked in early summer but has begun falling again, more proof of declining economic activity.

And what about more stimulus? That’s a wild card, but we can be sure that its effect on the dollar and bonds would be truly awful. The bamster will have to decide if he wants to bet the house on that one. Will he bet that another round of deleveraging will create enough slack for another batch of monopoly money? If so, he’ll be wrong.

Were I an astrologer, I’d have to say that the stars are all lining up for another crash.

And finally, the Bears and Contrarians will be vindicated.

August 13, 2009 Posted by | Uncategorized | , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Hot ‘n Bubbly

I don’t normally waste my time reading Fed Reserve pronouncements, but this one could hardly avoid hitting me in the face. Typically, such juicy tidbits are hidden deep within the 6pt font boilerplate.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year.

There are a lot of rumblings about the FHA creating yet another sub prime debacle. Most people think that problem is long gone, but not so. In fact, congress’s prescription for saving the banks, housing, mortgages and anything attached thereto is to institute subprime squared. Mortgages being written today are every bit as bad, if not worse, than sub prime. So far this year, the two blister sisters, Fanny & Ginny, plus their deadbeat brother Freddy, have put out another $1 trillion of that crap. And now for the punchline:

To keep this ugly balloon of alien skeleton-mouth drool afloat, the Fed is going to buy this crap with our money! This is beyond insane; its the stuff other worlds are made of. As if they haven’t already bought enough of this garbage already, the only way these madmen can think of to keep the dream afloat is buy yet more of it with monopoly money and bill to the taxpayer.

Inflation is now on the way riding chariots of fire.

August 12, 2009 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Hell Painted Green

Gee, I had no idea hell was painted green. Apparently it must be what with all the talk of greenshoots and recovery.

Apparently recovery consists of housing falling 15% in the second quarter, the news of which has prompted the Dow to rise 138 pts. so far today. The new paradigm is that recovery means that things are not getting any worse. In other words, if you lose half of what you got, and your losses stop, then, hey man, you are recovering even if what you lost is NOT  recovered. Wow, we should all jump for joy that the bleeding has stopped but no healing has taken place. Seems to have much of the tint of the George Bush “jobless” recovery, no?

Unfortunately, the notion of staunching the bleeding raises more than a few doubts. Unemployment continues to rise, home prices continue to fall, as does the dollar, interest rates are rising, stock prices are rocketing, but so are oil and food prices, mortgage defaults along with most other consumer credit hemorrhages continue unabated.  Meanwhile the USG is sucking capital out of the economy at a $2.5 trillion annual pop while wisely making the decision to raise taxes while the states and locals are nickle-diming us to death. Does any of this sound like a prescription for economic recovery? Only if you believe that Franklin Roosevelt was a master economist.

This has all the trappings of a new bubble being blown, but one that will completely by-pass all classes of people but those at the very top who suck at the government teat. This new bubble has a name: the government finance bubble.

Oh, yes, I’m looking for a merry tune to sing; how about Dionne Warwick’s “Promises, Promises”? “Greenfields.” by the Kingston Trio is just a bit morose for my take.

August 12, 2009 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment