Finance, Fuel Prices, Economics, Markets

The Future as I See It

I’ve been developing this vision of the future for several years now, having drawn on the ideas of many futurists. I don’t see all doom and gloom as many do, but rather a silver lining in the black cloud.

Anyone who was an adult in the 60’s and 70’s will recall how totally unpredictable the chain of events was during those years. There were widespread predictions of doomsday and Armageddon to such a degree that a president even gave a speech about the great malaise that had overtaken the nation (thanks to people like him ) The nation and the world faced numerous and very serious challenges, but ultimately sanity prevailed.

The end of the world as we know it didn’t happen, there was no nuclear war and USA didn’t fall apart. Overpopulation didn’t result in worldwide calamity. Here we are now 40 years later with a similar series of events and crises. But now a financial disaster faces the whole world which stems from the profound changes that took place 40 years ago. History is evolutionary.

All of our present circumstances basically resulted from the US emerging dominance after WWII and the arrogance of power that went along with it. What could have been more insane than the nuclear arms race? That arrogance of power is fueling the backlash that will ultimately cut it down to size. The glory days of American wealth and power are drawing to a close, lasting a mere 50 years. We will end up much like the collapse of the British empire which was also accompanied by severe financial problems. This is all to the good, a much needed adjustment.

Will the USA collapse? No, I don’t think so, there remains of this nation far too much wealth – both in terms of money and the dynamism of its people – for that to happen. We are corrupted, but not utterly corrupt. There yet remains much goodness in our people. The rest of the world has a love/hate relationship with us; we are not perceived as a totally evil empire but rather a misguided one.

I do not believe that there is any grand conspiracy by the elites. I can’t give them that much credit for being that smart, or organized. Rather, they just exploit conditions to their advantage as opportunities arise. Nowhere in history of nations do we find such such conspiracies. No, I think the behavior of the elites are simply misguided by amorality and greed, and like all such, they will destroy themselves. Caesar will end up with Brutus’s knife in his back. They always do.

The US will survive all this in a much humbled condition just as Britain did, and the good news is that I don’t think this will end up in a series of world wars as happened back then. Bad things will happen, to be sure. Maybe even a nuke will be set off somewhere in the world, but the futility of war is sinking into the minds of much of the world. Today it has advanced to Mutually Assured Destruction for all.

2010 is likely to be the pivotal year in which the 60 year status quo finally ends. The scenario I foresee is a repeat of the Great Depression without the world war that followed. The system of debt-money and the endless growth thesis that is required to maintain it has failed. It will be replaced by a new paradigm, a new economy in which technological advancement is no longer dominant and driven by constant, unending growth which is no longer possible due to resource scarcity and excessive populations. The global economy will not end but take a huge hit, scaling back by 50-75%. Import/export economies will no longer be viable; instead import nations will be forced back into self-sustaining economics; Americans will become poorer, the rest of the world richer.

Corporate, finance and investment structures will also undergo radical changes. Global corporations will die out quickly; nationalism will prevail. There will be trade wars and much fighting over resources; that’s never going to cease. Employment will evolve into a huge issue; I don’t see a bright future for free enterprise. We will end up looking more like Europe. It is a maxim that the larger populations grow, the more personal liberties shrink. That is inevitable, so get used to it. This doesn’t necessarily mean a lower quality of life. Your desire to do whatever you wish will be restrained.

We will be forced to live with less energy. We’ll be lucky to have one car in the driveway, yet alone two. I agree with Kunstler that there will be vast changes in the socio-economic layout of the nation. There will be huge migrations of people along with much social upheaval. The consumer economy is finished forever to be replaced by a self-sustaining economy or perish. Fifteen to twenty years from now the USA will more closely resemble the US of 1950 than of Y2K. And we will likely be happier and more mentally well balanced because of it.

Our so-called leaders are not Machiavellian conspirators. They are mostly ignorant, stupid, greedy people who are drunk on their own perceptions of illusory power. And most of them are laying the seeds of their own destruction. And while they think they are, they are not smart enough to organize a one world government. That’s a joke: these people can’t even agree on the time of day, yet alone organize a world government. The UN is proof of this impossibility.

Fiat currency will not come to an end, but the debt basis of that money probably will, replaced by some other arrangement, possibly by gold or other commodity backing. How this will play out is unknowable. The relative value of precious metals will increase dramatically but ultimately may end up in the hands of government exclusively as a monetary basis.

January 21, 2010 Posted by | Uncategorized | Leave a comment