ANTIESTABLISHMENTARIAN

Finance, Fuel Prices, Economics, Markets

Can’t Catch a Break

The beleaguered boating industry just can’t catch a break. Just when oil prices appear ready to start falling, they reverse and start heading higher. And yet despite falling from a recent high of $80 down to below $73, gasoline prices have not abated. Just in the last two days wholesale gas has risen 15 cents while oil has remained flat.

Year over year, gas is up over 33% on average. That’s not going to do anything good for the so-called recovery. Word is that all those tankers sitting idle storing oil is being rapidly sold off, bringing down inventories. Chances are that the oil price will soon start rising as well.

Lower oil prices got some help from the recent dollar rally which now appears to be stalling. And with the summer driving season coming up, it looks like we’ll be facing $3.00 gasoline again.

Meanwhile, in Venezuela Hugo Chavez is working diligently to destroy that nation and turn it into a socialist wasteland, having recently devalued its currency by 50% and throwing merchants in jail who try to raise prices. Destroying business seems to be his goal, and along with that goes his oil industry, the production of which is down 33% from last year. Chavez is quite simply a madman, and it would not be at all suprising to see that nation explode or implode, bringing its current 2.4 mbd production off line. Now wouldn’t that do wonders for the price of fuel?

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February 3, 2010 Posted by | Oil Updates | , , , | Leave a comment

Oil Crisis – It Ain’t Over

Most people I know have the notion that the oil crisis was a trumped up scam to make the oil companies richer. When oil prices collapsed they said, “See, told you so.” One cannot argue with them for they are determined to believe what they wish to believe.

Never mind that private oil companies now account for less than 5% of world oil production, with the other 95% controlled by nation-states. The following piece from Financial Times ought to be headline news around the world, but it isn’t. Like a nation trying to live on credit, a high state of delusion and denial abounds. It is a human weakness that is deadly. Continue reading

November 2, 2008 Posted by | Oil Updates | , , | Leave a comment

Could $200 Oil Be Sustained?

By way of introduction, I am not arguing that oil could not spike over $200, for I think it very well could. Instead, I will explore whether oil at that price could be sustained for any length of time say, more than a month or two. Continue reading

June 30, 2008 Posted by | Economics | , , | Leave a comment

Troubling Events

The Magic Kingdom Several months ago Saudi Arabia announced it was increasing output by 300,000 barrels. Last week that number was upped to 500,000 barrels. Then we get this:

“DUBAI (Reuters) – Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia was yet to determine the size of a planned oil output increase, Al Arabiya Television said on Sunday [today] citing an oil ministry official. [Really, not after numerous press releases with the numbers stated above?]

The kingdom was yet to decide the volume of the planned increase in its oil output, the official said, adding that determining any increase in output levels before the meeting of consumers and producers in Jeddah would be premature,” Saudi-owned Al Arabiya said.” Continue reading

June 15, 2008 Posted by | Economics, Oil Updates | , | Leave a comment

Probable Futures

[Despite the date shown above this is yesterday’s post which I have edited due to problems with formatting]

No, the title doesn’t mean futures as in commodities, but rather the price of our essential but over-consumed fuel. We’re at the point where many people who pay no attention to markets at all, now routinely ask, “What’s the price of oil today?” Its fast becoming the major topic of conversation. I’m writing this because I notice that many people sort of celebrate when the price drops. “Hey! Did you see the price of oil came down four bucks today?” That sort of thing. Continue reading

June 11, 2008 Posted by | Economics, Oil Updates | | Leave a comment

The Big Lie About Oil Speculation

There is a great deal of talk in Washington about the pernicious effects of “oil speculators” driving up the price of oil. One writer claimed that 50-60% of the price of oil was pure speculation. Even OPEC is taking the opportunity divert attention from their refusal to raise output by blaming speculators for the price rise. That is patently false. Continue reading

May 10, 2008 Posted by | Oil Updates, Uncategorized | , , , | Leave a comment

Dollar Crash Halted – For Now

Oil Price and Dollar Now Inextricably Linked

The horrific crash of the dollar from around 0.90 to 1.50 to the Euro has ended largely thanks to the flight to safety in U.S. Treasuries which raised the demand for dollars. It’s more than a bit ironic that the flight from dollars resulted in the purchase of dollar denominated bonds. Continue reading

December 10, 2007 Posted by | Oil Updates | , | Leave a comment

Don’t Rejoice Yet

Oil fell nearly ten dollars last week on news that the falling dollar has momentarily stopped and rumors that OPEC “may” increase production. Don’t bet on it. Meanwhile Hugo Chavez moved to consolidate his power by threatening to use his army to shut down banks and throw
bankers in prison. Continue reading

December 2, 2007 Posted by | Oil Updates | , , | Leave a comment

The Future of Boating

And Much Else Besides

A First In a Series

Money moves the world. It is the one god all men worship. If you would know why things are, follow the money.

Continue reading

November 26, 2007 Posted by | Boating Future, Economics | , , , | 1 Comment

Oil Notes

Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Oil closed today at $98.36, an all time high and an all time record daily price increase, a mere $1.64 short of the $100 mark. This was not, repeat, NOT based on any news of shut downs, wars, terrorists or other disruptions of supply. Instead, we can thank our government for its pathetic mismanagement of our money as the U.S. dollar hits an all time low. This is the crux of the soaring price of oil.

Meanwhile, at the OPEC meeting in Riyadh, oil ministers declined to even discuss raising production and blamed “speculation” for the record high prices. I tend to think they’re right, as more and more “investors” such as the likes of California Public Employees Retirement System, hedge funds, investment banks and numerous other “funds” seek security in the flight out of the derivatives fiasco created by Wall Street Banks. CALPERS today announced a $500 million investment in oil.

Yes, it is “speculators” driving up oil, but many of the speculators are 401k’s, various funds that are retirement programs of your friends and neighbors that are doing it. And perhaps, even you? Do you know where your retirement funds are invested?

November 20, 2007 Posted by | Oil Updates | , , , | Leave a comment